Paraíba set to lead economic growth in the Northeast in 2026, Santander study indicates

Paraíba once again stands out in the regional macroeconomic landscape. According to the "Brazil – Regional Scenario" report released last week by Santander Bank, the state holds the highest projected GDP growth for 2026 among all states in the Northeast region, with an estimated 2.33%.

In the ranking of projected GDP growth for 2026 in the Northeast, Paraíba takes the top spot, followed by Maranhão (2.16%). The other Northeastern states show projections below Paraíba's level.

This projected 2.3% rise in 2026 also places the state tenth nationwide in terms of growth rate—a figure exceeding both the regional and national averages of 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively.

According to the Secretary of Planning, Gilmar Martins, the study conducted by Santander Bank confirms projections made by Banco do Brasil, which also point to economic growth for Paraíba in 2026 that surpasses regional and national averages.

"We anticipate this scenario repeating itself next year, considering that many investments will be coming to fruition and facilities will be entering into operation—such as those at the Cabo Branco Tourism Hub, the 'Bridge of the Future' [Ponte do Futuro], and the Astronomy City [Cidade da Astronomia]," the secretary said.

The report further highlights that, following a 2025 marked by strong performance in the agricultural sector—which drove growth in various producing regions—2026 will be a year of transition.

Sectors – Without the same boost seen in agriculture the previous year, growth in Paraíba in 2026 is expected to be more evenly distributed across different economic sectors, driven primarily by industry.

Industrial growth in Paraíba is projected at 4.7% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. It is the second-best result in the country for this year—surpassed only by Piauí (5%)—and it shares the top spot for the coming year with Piauí, as well as Amapá, Tocantins, and Mato Grosso do Sul.

Meanwhile, the projected industrial growth averages for the same period are 1.7% and 1.5% at the national level, and 2.1% and 1.9% for the Northeast.

2027 GDP – Looking specifically at 2027, the outlook for Paraíba is to remain in positive territory with a GDP growth of 1.7%—a figure that stays above the regional and national averages, both of which are projected to close at 1%.